USDTRY At Monthly Lows Ahead Of Thursday’s CBRT Policy Meeting

USDTRY correction accelerates today making fresh monthly lows ahead of Thursday’s central bank of Turkey policy meeting. Analysts expect that CBRT will cut interest rates for the ninth consecutive meeting, in an attempt to offset the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the turkish economy. In July 2019 the interest rates were at 24%.
As Turkeys economy returns gradually to normality, the sentiment improves for TRY. Turkish lira managed to bounce back from historic lows that hit early in May amid the deterioration in the country’s currency reserves and foreign financing needs.
The central bank will probably cut the interest rates by 50 basis points, to 8.25%. Turkey’s interest rate is now negative as it stands at 8.75% below the annual inflation of 10.9%.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that Turkey’s economy may contract by 5% this year.
The foreign currency-denominated debt increased speculation that Turkey is approaching a currency crisis. Turkey’s private sector held $177.6 billion in fx debt as of March 2020, according to the most recent data from Turkey’s Central Bank. 61.8% of this debt was denominated in dollars, 33.5% in euros, 3% in Turkish lira, while the remaining 1.8% was held in a variety of other foreign currencies.

USDTRY Price Resistance and Support

USDTRY is 1.27% lower at 6.7968, as the pair correction targets now the 50-day moving average support. The technical outlook remains bullish for the pair despite the recent sharp correction. A break below the 50-day SMA might cancel the positive momentum for the short term.   

On the downside, the first support for USDTRY stands at 6.7635 the daily low. The next support level stands at 6.7363 the 50-day moving average. More bids might emerge at 6.6632 the low from April 10.     

On the upside, first resistance for USDTRY stands at 6.8768 the daily top. If the pair breaks higher, then the next resistance will be met at 6.9187 the high from May 15. If the bullish momentum persists, the next target will be met at 6.9677 the high from May 14.